[Helped by Apple’s successful launch of its Siri technology in 2011, voice-activated mobile virtual assistants (VAs) have crossed the chasm into mass-market deployments. Apple’s product triggered a wave of both imitation and innovation in the last year, including tens of smartphone applications. This was only for starters. Developers, speech recognition and AI vendors, telcos and handset manufacturers are now all working on bringing the next-generation VA to life.] Read more about the evolution of virtual assistants from 1995 to 2015 in the full report (free download) Apple got a head start by embedding Siri in its UI, but Samsung is now countering with Samsung Voice. And Nokia is also working on a Siri-like interface, our sources say. Telecom operators are also warming up to the idea; some VA integration with RCS could hit the European market in early 2014. With technology advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) — in particular Natural Language Processing (NLP), user profiling and search – VA technology is moving from understanding language to anticipating user intent. As such the focus for virtual assistant apps is shifting from today’s command-and-control (“I ask, you answer”) towards continual dialogues of recommendations and user actions. Established vendors such as SRI International, Apple, Google and Nuance as well as challengers like Artificial Solutions, Dexetra and i-Free Innovations, are all working on this shift from commands to dialogue. SRI International is to showcase a back-and-forth dialogue technology by fall 2012. With the advances in VA technology, virtual assistant personalities will move from devices to the cloud due to the immense amounts of data needed to process. With personalities stored in the cloud, virtual assistants will become readily and seamless available not only on smartphones, but also on TVs, in cars, and in smart homes. Established cloud storage and processing companies like Google and Amazon stand to benefit the most. Virtual assistants are disrupting ad-based business models Traditional search and ad-based business models are being disrupted. Delivering answers rather than search results, is a core value proposition of virtual assistants. For traditional search engines, this translates into decreasing page hits and consequently to a fall in search advertising revenue. Google has seen declining search traffic from iPhones following the launch of Siri, according to our sources. Disruption to advertising business models (read Google and Facebook) arises as virtual assitants become a point of convergence for user profiling data. By amassing deep knowledge of user search terms, VAs can become pivotal to third parties wanting to target users by interest. Amidst these disruptions, we expect Google to launch a free Siri alternative across multiple smartphone platforms, hardwired to Google’s search results and advertising revenue streams. Google’s open speech recognition API creates traction for Android. It also means more efforts required by licensing SR vendors to attract and keep voice-based app developers. Exploring business models for virtual assistants Paid downloads generate little revenue for VA vendors today. The 43 VA apps we looked into generated under 2 million USD, despite over 133 million downloads. Nearly 86 percent of paid download revenue were on iOS. What VA vendors are actually focusing on today is to build a large user base in order to cut intersting third-party content and service distribution deals for the future. Moving forward, we see revenue coming in from search and advertising and, increasingly, from third-party deals and avatar customisation, rather than from paid downloads. Virtual assistants as a discovery control point As virtual assistants move from being apps to becoming access points for personalised service discovery, they will become strategic distribution channels for both mainstream and niche service providers. Moreover, context-based user profiling opens new opportunities for contextual marketing and advertising, by letting brands push more user-relevant messages, offers and recommendations through virtual assistants. Siri was just the beginning. Don’t forget to download the full report – and send us your feedback! – Marlène #virtualassistants #crossscreen #google #Apple #siri

Managing Director Andreas Constantinou launched Mobile Megatrends 2012 at the Mobile Heights Business Centre in Lund on 4 May 2012. You can watch Managing Director, Andreas Constantinou in his presentation here.

Our Developer Economics 2012 survey has now closed and the prize draw winners have been announced: $1,000 Amazon voucher Glenn Stein, USA New iPad Jeff Bacon, Canada Kindle Fire: Marouan Omezzine, Tunisia Thank you to all those that took part. We’ll be publishing the results of this survey as a free report in June 2012 – if you want to receive word, please subscribe to our mailing list

Managing Director Andreas Constantinou presented Mobile Megatrends 2012 at the GMIC in China on 10 May 2012.

Marketing Manager Matos Kapetanakis presented The mobile market in 2011: new facts & old myths‘ at theWireless Innovation MED Conference on 27 April 2012. The presentation covered what the mobile market looked like in 2011 and what changes are heading our way..

We’ve just launched the Developer Economics 2012 survey. Developer Economics is the essential report on mobile developers, apps and brands going mobile The results will be freely available in Q2 2012 as a free report. Now in its third year, our annual Developer Economics reports series has become a well-known staple of developer research, with nearly 30 thousand downloads from our website alone and hundreds of mentions in popular media. This research is produced by VisionMobile and sponsored by BlueVia. To find out more click here and if you’re a Mobile Developer join the survey and have your say.

[Welcome to the new edition of our annual Mobile Megatrends report series. Megatrends 2012 analyses and interprets the nine most important trends of 2012, explaining how the software world is impacting the mobile business.] Mobile Megatrends 2012 View more presentations from VisionMobile The new Mobile Megatrends report Mobile Megatrends 2012 is a 96-page research report – available for free download from our website or SlideShare – dissecting nine key themes: – Handset DELL-ification and the emerging pyramid of handset OEM – Web as the new walled garden and why the web is going back to the AOL days. – Cross-platform tools as the next challenge to the Apple/Google duopoly – The Kindelization of tablets – how Kindle is setting the rules of the tablet market – Ecosystems battle across 4 screens and how experience roaming drives user lock-in, cross-sales and engagement – Accessories as the next frontier for platform differentiation – Tools for gold seekers and how the developer gold-rush has led to a gold rush for developer tools – Reinventing the telco and how unbundling the telco is needed to compete in the software era – The future of voice, from telephony to diversity of use cases We’ll dig into two of these trends in this article – Handset DELL-ificationn and Cross-platform tools. To read the full analysis of all the trends, download the full report – feedback welcome. The DELL-ification of the handset market In late 2010, it was reported that Symbian had been toppled from the smartphone throne by Android. Back then, the difference in market share between Symbian and Android was just 2%. During 2011, the gap grew much larger, with Android claiming more than half of the shipments in the smartphone market, and Symbian dropping to single digits of market share. Android’s dominance in 2011 can be summarized in just one phrase: One in two smartphones shipped in 2011 was an Android handset. The driver to Android’s success was the eagerness of many handset manufacturers to build cheap smartphones that can compete against the iPhone. Google, too, used Android to commoditize the smartphone market, indirectly reducing handset price points well below $100 and causing a loss of OEM differentiation, thus homogenizing smartphones into a single form factor. While many handset rode the Android train into the smartphone market, it’s actually very few that are making real profits. Aside from Apple, Samsung is the only company of the Android court that’s achieving profitability. Together, Apple and Samsung accounted for 99% of all handset profits in Q1 2012. That means that 10s of Android handset makers will have to fight over the crumbs of the smartphone pie, i.e. the remaining 1% of the market profits. The success of Apple and Samsung rests on their ability to add value across the entire value chain, from silicon to the cloud. Apple owns the iOS platform, hardware IP, handset design, content delivery and services, all the way to retail, combining these into a unique product experience. Samsung also derives its competitive advantage from exerting control over the entire value chain, producing the components with the highest cost, notably screens and application chipsets. This allows the company to capture profits across the value chain, while its competitors can only capture the value of assembly. Ownership of the key components within the value chain allows Samsung to reap not only profit benefits, but also availability and time-to-market benefits. Samsung also leads Android makers by being the first to market with new Android releases and next-gen screens, which allows it to capture even more profits arising from early adopter sales. Does all this mean that the smartphone market is entirely dominated by Samsung and Apple? While this might be true for the time being, there’s still room for new types of players, like Amazon, who could enter the smartphone market with a unique business model of subsidizing (self-branded) phones to drive a content and retailing ecosystem. Nokia continues to innovate in low-end handsets, notably with the release of the 110 phone running on S40 platform, and featuring a 1.8” screen at only 38 EUR before taxes and subsidy. To read more on the opportunities of the smartphone market, download the full report. Cross-Platform Tools and the challenge to the Apple/Google duopoly In order to maximize their reach, developers need to have apps running across multiple platforms. The challenge with that is that developers have to learn a variety of different programming languages, vastly different to each other, as well as use various app stores. The situation is especially difficult for developers who are just entering mobile – and there are millions of those! Cross-platform tools are a solution to increasing reach without accruing costs, by simplifying the porting of an app across different platforms. There’s a plethora of different tools available (see our comprehensive Cross-Platform Tools 2012 report for the full list), which cover diverse technologies and solutions, from source code translators to hybrid web tools. Impeded by teething issues, the CPT market has not come into full swing yet, but it’s quickly gaining acceptance with leading tools like PhoneGap and Sencha that have made it into the mainstream. What CPTs bring to the table is the democratization of development, by extending the reach of masses of web developers beyond the browser. Despite performance disadvantages and fragmentation across different browser versions, HTML5 has emerged as the most widely supported authoring technology for cross-platform apps. Cross-platform tools are taking HTML further than web browsers can, by allowing web developers to create native smartphone apps, using for example PhoneGap. CPTs are accomplishing this by unifying the authoring side- rather than the runtime side – of the app across platforms. In addition, cross-platform tools are threatening the Apple/Google duopoly. 2012 marks an inflexion point in the war of mobile ecosystems where the network effects built by Apple and Google are being challenged by an unsuspected new entrant – CPTs make it easier, for example, for an iPhone developer to reach Android and Windows Phone 7 users. CPTs dilute network effects by allowing other ecosystems to compete not just in terms of the number of apps listed, but also the availability of top apps, the time-to- market (an app rarely appears at the same time across all platform app stores) and the overall app quality. We expect web developers to be at least ten times as many as native mobile developers, which means that the still-nascent CPT market will quickly grow in the near future. Although not necessarily a replacement for native development, cross-platform tools will become more prominent, easing the way for 100s of thousands of developers who are just entering the mobile market. Read more on the growth of the CPT space and the top vendors in the full report. The Megatrends report series Now in its 5th edition, our annual Mobile Megatrends report identifies the major trends in mobile – from the accessories market to the Kindel-ization of tablets and the battle of ecosystems across 4 screens. download. You can also view the whole report on SlideShare (see embedded window at top of article) If you’re interested in a 1-day on-site strategy workshop – with more in-depth insights into these trends, contact matos@visionmobile.com Feedback welcome, as always – Matos @visionmobile

[The bright cross-screen future is creeping ever closer, with handset manufacturers and consumer electronics giants competing over the next connected screen; the TV. But what about developers – how easy is it to create apps that work across screens? Guest author Ben Hookway discusses the nuances of cross-screen development and the challenges and opportunities ahead for the smart TV market] Imagine for a moment a world of apps where there are more than 10 platforms to choose from – and where most of these platforms are closed to developers. A world where only a few applications have been developed. A world where no one is using these apps anyway. Of course this is describing the current state of the connect TV market. The description could equally apply to the mobile world pre-iPhone, when the focus of app development was on a frustratingly diverse set of platforms. I spent a few years building businesses which operated in the mobile space pre- and post- iPhone, and lately I’ve been building a business attempting to disrupt web and connected TV. I am constantly struck by the similarity of both environments and believe that the TV industry should spend some quality time looking at the evolution of apps on the mobile from the feature phone to smart phone to avoid re-learning some painful lessons. TV is a world apart from mobile apps The word “app” can mean something subtly different on TV. In many cases a TV app is an access point for a set of content – for example, the YouTube, Netflix or LoveFilm apps. In other cases an app refers to functionality just as the Facebook or the eBay app. In my more cynical moments I sometimes think we’ve ended up with apps on TV because nobody could think of anything better to do. “It worked for phones, so lets try it on TV! The right apps will be useful on TV, but at the same time it is important to recognise what the TV experience is: – TV is often a shared experience. Mobile phones are personal. – TV is lean back. Various attempts to get consumers to interact with TV have fallen away – Consumers hate complex remote controls Many developers crossing over from web development to TV development aren’t recognising these nuances. This may end in apps just not getting used. Do you really want to be allowing your personal information on a shared screen? Will the other people sharing the TV screen really want it to be used for you scrolling through your Facebook messages? Three Ways to Develop Apps for TV There are roughly three different categories for TV app development; 1. TV-only apps Apps for the TV screen or set-top box are usually your favourite web services extended to the TV screen. Examples are Spotify, Flickr and of course Twitter and Facebook. The apps need to be modified in order to work with a TV remote as well and with limited text input – which is easier said than done. Some will be more suitable for crossing over to TV than others. CNet has a comprehensive listing of mainstream music, video and communication apps that have been launched by TV manufacturers. 2. Mobile-only apps These are mobile or tablet apps that complement the TV but don’t interact with it. Examples here are Zeebox (which recently secured an interesting investment from Sky), Flip.tv, GetGlu, and Miso. These apps focus on providing a concurrent experience to watching the TV, allowing you to interact on your personal device while watching the TV. In this category you can add apps that provide listings content and so on. Consumer surveys show tablets are a natural companion to TV – according to Forrester, 85% of US tablet owners use their tablets while watching TV, and according to Nielsen, 30% of total tablet time is spent while watching TV. 3. Closed loop apps These are apps that close the loop between mobile and TV experience. Some examples here use DLNA and AirPlay to allow the selection and control of streamed content to the TV screen. The simplest example here would be Apple’s AirPlay allowing you to play movies stored on your MacBook on your TV screen via the Apple TV. Closed loop apps allow you to stream content from one device to the TV screen, for instance. Harder to find are apps which interact with the broadcast TV functions as opposed to using the TV as a monitor, such as allowing you to set recordings on your STB from your smartphone. However, discovering content or channels on one device and using that same device to bring up the content on TV is a more difficult proposition because of the integration required with the TV or STB. This is where innovation starts to break down. The TV fragmentation nightmare Developing for TV or STB platforms is challenging, whether you are developing TV/STB apps, attempting to ‘close the loop’ or develop a standalone app. Why is that? – There are a 10+ target platforms. Everyone is pushing some kind of application environment for their TV or set-top box. Examples are, Samsung, Panasonic, Sharp, LG, Sony, Yahoo, Google TV, Boxee, InView, WyPlay, YouView (eventually) and HBBTV – not to mention Android spin-offs. Some of these are closed systems and some have developers programs. For a comprehensive list it is worth looking at this Wikipedia page. No developer can target all of these platforms, so how do you pick the right one for success? – How many connected TV screens are there going to be? According to the CEA (www.cea.org), about 260m TV’s were sold in 2011, and around 27% of these were connected (FutureSource). The percentage of TVs that come with Internet connectivity as standard will increase rapidly. Assuming the all connected TVs that are sold are actually plugged into the Internet, the addressable market is still way lower than for mobile phones. In reality, the picture is much more complex. – Many ‘Connected TVs’ are TVs which happen to be ready for connection. Just because it’s Internet ready, it doesn’t mean that the TV will be actually plugged into the Internet and used. – Not enough of these devices have been bought yet for consumers to realise how poor some of the experiences are. Good products evolve from feedback and there are simply not enough devices in the market for manufacturers to learn from consumer feedback yet. Moreover, there is no compelling reason for consumers to give feedback when they can just go the TV content they want with their existing systems such as traditional set top box services, or use catch-up TV services on PCs and tablets. Will TV have its ‘iPhone Moment‘? Having worked through the iPhone disruption in the mobile space I can safely say that this has not yet occurred in the TV market. However, when it comes it will decisively change the dynamics of development. This is important for start-ups working in the TV space and the investors, VC or Angels who back them. Consider the dynamics of app development pre-iPhone. Often you would have to work with an operator or with a handset manufacturer and would have to pay close attention to the changes in the target platform. Dealing with handset manufacturers and operators is notoriously tricky and time-consuming – and while can make you a superstar if you get it right, more often it wastes time and precious resources. Post-iPhone, the way of reaching users and making money with apps has radically changed. No need for deep relationships with operators or handset manufacturers – you can just target the obvious winners in the platform space and push your app to the store. This environment does not exist yet in TV. There are candidates for an ‘iPhone moment’ in TV. Obviously Apple are rumoured to be launching a proper TV. The current Apple TV box is a great device but is not yet an open app platform. Google TV is a slow burn project but is making steady progress and could be a candidate. Xbox is also a dark horse, especially with the recent reports (http://t.co/DrM7mu1t) which show that more time is now spent watching content through and Xbox than gaming on it. And don’t forget the TV incumbents who have been working on this for a while. TiVo, Sky+, YouView in the UK, HBB TV in Europe are all active in TV platform development and Roku has been providing Over The Top (OTT) boxes for a couple of years now. Where should you place your bets? TV is a confusing place to be working at the moment, in an industry that could be going through an inflexion point in the next couple of years. Its very hard to place the right bet when it comes to TV app development platforms. That said, if you want a list of places to focus on I would list: TV Manufacturers: Samsung and Sony because of their volume STB Companies: Boxee, Roku for as thought leaders so far Platforms: Google TV is the most open platform, and are doing a great deal to encourage development, including signing up major tier-1 services like Hulu. They have low volumes at the moment though so keep an eye on product announcements (http://www.google.com/tv/) And of course, watch Apple. The next significant step may be the opening up of the current Apple TV product to app development (it is currently closed). The announcement many are waiting for though is of an actual TV set. TV will have its iPhone Moment, but it might not be Apple that creates it. – Ben (@benhookway) [Ben Hookway has 15 years experience in the US, Europe and Asia in technology companies. He has been CEO of Next Device, a mobile phone UI company, and Vidiactive, a web video systems provider. He is currently working with a variety of tech companies and can be contacted at ben@etherow.com] #crossscreen #developers #tv #tvapps

[As we kick off our new Developer Economics 2012 survey, Marketing Manager Matos takes a look at the current trends of mobile development and how this survey plans to address them. If you want to join Developer Economics 2012, take our online survey – there are three great prizes up for grabs!] Now in its third year, Developer Economics is back for a new research on some of the hottest trends of the developer ecosystem. Once again sponsored by BlueVia, our seminal report series is about to launch, investigating key themes, such as developer mindshare, app monetization and marketing, as well as regional app economics. So – take 10 minutes to complete our online survey – and win great prizes (we have a $1,000 Amazon voucher, a new iPad, and a Kindle Fire up for grabs). The results of this survey will be published as a free report in Q2, courtesy of the sponsorship by BlueVia. Developer Economics 2012 – Key themes This research revolves around five main themes: –       Developer Mindshare –       App Store Fragmentation –       Making money from apps –       App Marketing –       Apps supply vs. demand per region Why are these themes important? Let’s take them, one at a time: Developer Mindshare – which are the top platforms for developers? Our previous two Developer Economics reports have shown clear trends in terms of the migration of developer MindShare (i.e. the average % of developers using each platform) away from traditional platforms, such as Java, Flash Lite and BlackBerry and onto newer platforms – mainly Android and iOS. One of the biggest surprises in last year’s report was the emergence of mobile web as the third most widely used platform in mobile – as the app economy is shifting the balance of power among key players of the mobile industry, software developers flock to mobile, claiming their own piece of the pie. The increasing usage of cross-platform tools (see our full report on Cross-Platform Tools here) reduces the barriers to entry and allows developers of all inklings to create apps that have the potential to be downloaded thousands, if not millions, of times. App Store Fragmentation – how many app stores do developers use concurrently? At the same time, all and sundry are attempting to tap into the app economy, creating new app stores left and right. There are currently over 70 app stores – and that’s just for Android! Traditional players, like Telcos and handset manufacturers, have also created app stores and are allowing access behind their proverbial walled gardens, leaving developers lost in a sea of app stores. Since the choice of app stores is largely dependent on the platform used to create their apps, developers need to carefully target the stores they will use. The majority of these app stores have a limited range and scope – join our survey and let us know which ones you think are the most important. Revenues vs. costs – which developers are making money? As the number of apps available in the big stores has reached immense heights, discoverability has become a thorny issue for developers. An app that has taken time and money to be developed might be lost amidst the crowd of similar apps, providing very low revenues to the developer who created it. Despite an abundance of opportunities and the fact that many companies, both from within and outside the mobile industry, view developers as an asset, there’s a long tail of developers who don’t manage to break even. There are many parameters that govern monetization. Choosing a revenue model is extremely important, as the trend is moving away from the traditional pay-per-download model and into in-app purchases and premium features. Moreover, choice of platform seems to be equally important, since not all platforms are created equal, at least in terms of monetization. For example, several reports indicate that iOS users are the most avid app fans, downloading more than Android or Windows Phone users. Monetizing a great app is more than actually creating it – it’s a mixture of several parameters, such as selecting the right audience, the right platform and the right distribution channel. Which brings us to our next theme; marketing. App marketing – what’s the best way of marketing your apps? It’s not enough just to create a great app; most of the time, you have to spend money in order to make money, which means developers need to invest in marketing. There are numerous of ways of marketing an app – through the usual suspects (social media, own website/blog etc.) to paying for Google AdWords, Facebook ads or even premium placement in app stores.  As with everything marketing-related it not just a matter of throwing money at your problem, but of tailoring your message to the right audience and selecting the best channel to reach them. Which means that marketing goes even further back in the app supply chain – i.e. the design board. It’s imperative that developers know whom they’re making their apps for, how large their audience is and what is the best way to reach them. Have more ideas on app marketing? Take our survey and give us your views. Regional vs. global demand – what is the balance between developer supply vs. app demand across regions? Gone are the days when the entire mobile industry revolved around North America, Europe and East Asia. The app economy has allowed players from all around the globe to join in and make a killing. Countries like China, India or Brazil have huge developer communities, of increasing importance. In previous Developer Economics reports we found that platform use varies with region – for example, there’s a large concentration of iOS developers in North America, while Asia holds a higher-than-average percentage of Java developers. At the same time, users are looking for more localized content – local apps in their own language. As Flurry reported a while back, China is now the second largest market in terms of app downloads – and is expected to grow even more, as China has now overtaken the US in Android and iOS activations.  As app markets are growing all around the globe, the importance of localized content becomes paramount – which is the next app heaven? Developer Economics 2012 survey is now live So – if you’re interested as much as we are to know the answer to all these questions and the themes presented here – Take the online survey and let us know what you think. If you’re not a developer you can always help us spread the word! – Matos #mobileplatform #ios #bada #mobiledeveloper #survey #Android #windowsphone #Blackberry

[Eight months after the announcement of the MeeGo  project by Intel and Nokia, guest author Dave Neary analyses the progress made to date in MeeGo Handset, and the project’s prospects for the future] The end of October saw the release of MeeGo 1.1, the second major milestone release of the platform since it burst onto the scenes in February 2010. The MeeGo project was born under the auspices of the Linux Foundation from a merging of Nokia’s Maemo platform, targeting smart phones, and Intel’s moblin platforms, aimed at netbooks. [poll id=6] The merger grew from a core idea: pick the best of breed components from both stacks, collaborate on the integration and testing of shared components, and standardise a number of open source UX (User eXperience) profiles, on which vendors could build and deploy complete commercial grade stacks. The initial UX profiles announced were netbook, smartphone, IVI (In-Vehicle Interface) and media center/TV. Nokia and Intel have both made a major commitment to the platform, but critics say that the relationship is little more than a marriage of convenience. After all, Intel is a silicon vendor, betting heavily on the Atom-based Moorestown platform, and Nokia is a handset designer, largely shipping ARM-based devices. Growing pains The project has had some teething problems. Troubled Nokia has changed CEO, and the founding father of the Maemo project, Ari Jaaksi, has been among a number of high level software executives to leave the company, leading some to ask whether Nokia might have a change of heart about the platform. The first MeeGo device for Nokia, originally expected at the end of 2010, will now appear in 2011, according to recent comments from new CEO Stephen Elop, as Nokia strive to ensure a good first impression for its first MeeGo device. There are some early public signs of friction in the working relationship of the stakeholders in the project, also. The adoption of Qt as the primary toolkit for both platform and applications has met with resistance from Intel engineers, who acquired Clutter in 2008 and integrated it heavily into the netbook user interface, plus partners like Novell who developed versions of GTK+ applications like the Evolution email client and Banshee music player specifically for the netbook form factor. Long-awaited MeeGo compliance specifications have resulted in drawn out and sometimes acrimonious debate.  Trademark guidelines have been a sticking point for community ports of the MeeGo netbook UX to Linux when these ports do not include required core components. Related to the technical governance of the project, there is some uncertainty around the release process, and the means and criteria which will be used when considering the inclusion of new components. And there are some signs that the “all open, all the time” message at the project launch has been tempered by the reality of building a commercial device. The Promise of Openness Many of these issues are to be expected when merging two projects into one and pairing two very different animals. Every open source project has its own culture, and Moblin and Maemo are no different. Relationship capital which participants built up in the contributing projects must now be rebuilt within a broader group. MeeGo has had some early successes. MeeGo 1.0, which included the Netbook UX and an early prerelease of the smartphone UX, was delivered in July, complete with the source code of a number of components which had previously been proprietary. Novell MeeGo has been shipping on a number of netbooks since then. The MeeGo wiki lists dozens of MeeGo-compatible devices. The inaugural MeeGo Conference is set to take place in Dublin, from the 15th to the 17th of November, and has sold out with over 600 registered attendees to date. And there is no denying that the companies involved in the project are committed to it. With the recent rumours that the Symbian Foundation may be shutting up shop, Nokia has few choices of platform left for upcoming high-end devices. Announcing their updated software strategy during their quarterly results call this month, the company confirmed that they are fully committed to MeeGo as the only platform for high end devices from now on. Clearly, there is a future for the project. The question is, how will MeeGo Handset hold up against the competition from the platforms with the most momentum in the market – iOS and Android, or the recently released Windows Mobile 7. Will a newly reinvigorated WebOS (with Ari Jaaksi at the helm) challenge it for the mantle of the exciting new upstart? In short, is it any good? And will operators, handset manufacturers, application developers and users adopt it? User experience Since we do not yet have a MeeGo handset device available, it is very difficult to accurately judge the user experience at this time. It is possible to install MeeGo on the Nokia N900 and use it as a phone, using Nokia’s proprietary drivers to enable the hardware, but a lot of basic functionality is missing at present. In my tests, the camera, GPS, battery indicator, network signal strength indicator and WiFi did not work correctly. Features which do work can be slow, or have stability issues. Basic functionality like reading contact details off a SIM card, or unlocking the SIM card on boot, are still missing. A MeeGo device getting to the market will undoubtedly have pristine hardware integration using 3rd party drivers, and a considerable amount of fit-and-finish which the basic MeeGo stack does not yet have. The MeeGo handset user experience is still in transition. Maemo 5, the platform’s predecessor, was created using GTK+ and Clutter, while the MeeGo user interface has been built from the ground up using Qt. By all accounts, there are still a number of stability and quality issues with the stack, which we can expect to be addressed in a release shipping on a device. At this time, the MeeGo Handset UX is not intended for anyone but developers. It is too early to be able to tell how the final product will compare to iOS or Android. The Developer story At the time of its announcement, one of the key advantages held up to developers was the potential to use a single toolkit, Qt, to build native applications which will be portable across Windows, Linux and Symbian. Nokia has been investing heavily in RAD tools like Qt Quick to allow developers to get up and running quickly. In addition, their as-yet unavailable Web Run Time promises to allow developers to easily integrate web applications. The developer tools are in development, and do not yet compare favourably with the equivalent Android offering, which includes easy tools for building, testing and deploying applications using Eclipse. In addition, since the project is still in relatively early stages, there is a marked lack of entry-level documentation to help developers get started. It is still unclear what software distribution channels or app stores will be available for application developers on a MeeGo device. Ovi Store will be available on Nokia devices for commercial applications, and there may be a community distribution channel made available for community-built applications, but what form this channel might take, and to what extent it will integrate with the MeeGo user experience is still unclear. Presumably other handset manufacturers, should MeeGo gain wider adoption, will provide their own application stores, further fragmenting the application developer story. MeeGo certification ensures that it will be possible to build applications which work across all vendors, but at this point the jury is still out on how useful “MeeGo Compliant” will be to application developers. There is a possibility of considerable fragmentation among non-core APIs when MeeGo devices from several vendors are available. From the point of view of tools, documentation and software distribution channels, MeeGo is undoubtedly behind its primary competitors – but for such a young project, this is to be expected. The success of the project among application developers and the free software community will depend to a large extent on the project’s ability to fill these gaps and provide developers with an excellent development experience. For platform developers, the story is much more encouraging. The source code to the entire MeeGo stack is available, and anyone can download images built daily. Images built for ARM and Intel Atom can be installed and tested on a range of developer devices, including the Nokia N900, TI’s BeagleBoard or PandaBoard, or the Aava Mobile developer kit. On the other hand, there has been a tendency of the platform architects to reduce the range of hardware and software supported by the basic MeeGo stack. There is limited support for non-Intel x86 chipsets, and support for only a subset of ARM chips. Kernel modules have been aggressively trimmed, sometimes arbitrarily, to disable functionality such as NFS. Community and governance MeeGo development is all happening in a public git repository, most discussions are on public mailing lists, and there are a large number of experienced free software developers among the community development team, which is ensuring that any communication or transparency problems are identified and addressed swiftly. In the mobile platform development world, it is fair to say that MeeGo is second to none in terms of its open development model. This contrasts sharply with Android which is primarily developed behind closed doors by Google, and iOS which is a completely proprietary platform. If there is a key differentiator for MeeGo in the hand-held market, this is it. It remains to be seen whether the open development model will be a selling point which will tip the balance when manufacturers are choosing a platform for a device. The MeeGo community is made up of members of the Maemo and Moblin communities, and in the case of Maemo, there have been a number of contributors who have decided not to contribute to the MeeGo project. The move to MeeGo represents the third major change in the project in two years (after the move to GTK+/Clutter in Maemo 5 and the announcement that Qt would be the only supported application toolkit) and has left some shell-shocked. The Moblin community, on the other hand, did not develop a large platform developer community, partly since the project did not offer a distribution channel for application developers. It seems like all those who were productively contributing to moblin have followed the project move to MeeGo. OEMs and operator support One of the key differentiators between traditional handset manufacturers and the young guns (iOS and Android) which have taken the market by storm, is that both Android and iOS have concentrated on the user and application developer experience to the detriment of their relationship with OEMs and operators. It is widely argued that Apple’s iPhone has reduced the role of the operator to that of a bandwidth and infrastructure provider. In turn Google takes a take-it-or-leave-it approach with handset manufacturers; unless manufacturers comply with Android’s compatibility definitions (CTS and CDD), they can’t have access to the Android trademark, Android Market’s 100,000+ application, Google Maps and several other closed source applications. Nokia has a more traditional approach of putting handset manufacturers and network operators ahead of developers. This shows through in many of the architecture decisions in MeeGo. The platform has been built with operator and OEM customisation and integration in mind from the start. A primary concern for OEMs with MeeGo is the time required to integrate the platform into a specific device and ship to market. With the time to market for Android handsets dropping to 4-5 months from project to production, it will be very hard for MeeGo to compete, even with the MeeGo 1.2 release, due in the first half of 2011. Still a long way to go It does not feel fair at this point to compare MeeGo, a project which came into being 8 months ago, with iOS or Android, but this is the yardstick which will be used when the first MeeGo smartphone comes on the market. The project has come a long way since its inception, in particular in working towards an open and transparent development model. There is still some way to go but improvements have been happening daily. However, to succeed as a platform, the application developer story and the user experience are vital. There is a lot of work to be done in these areas for MeeGo to gain serious traction outside of the small community of Finnish handset designers. Nokia still has a long way to go. – Dave [Dave Neary is the docmaster at maemo.org and a long-standing member of the GNOME Foundation. He has worked in the IT industry for more than 10 years, leading software projects and organising open source communities,  He’s passionate about technology, and free software in particular.] #meego #governance #nokia #maemo #qt #opensource #intel #mobiledeveloper #userexperience #developers #handsetmanufacturers

The Mobile Developer Journey A few months ago, VisionMobile published Developer Economics 2010 and Beyond, a research report that tracked the entire mobile developer journey, from app design and platform selection to market delivery and monetization. Now, we’re proud to present the entire Mobile Developer Journey on a single infographic. Developer Economics 2010 and Beyond was created by VisionMobile and sponsored by Telefonica Developer Communities. Did you miss the chance to participate in our research and have your say on app development? Well, you can express your views in our upcoming developer research, Developer Economics 2011, which is just a few months away. Pre-subscribe here Feel free to copy the infographic and embed it in your website. 600 pixels wide version 760 pixels wide version 1000 pixels wide version [sociable_code] #mobileapps #ios #flashlite #javame #mobiledevelopers #mobiledeveloper #symbian #Android #Blackberry #mobileapplications #iphone #appstores

[The UI of Android mobile devices is at the epicenter of a conflict between Google and the OEM struggle for differentiation. Guest author Ben Hookway analyses why Google’s UI strategy will be paramount to its proliferation as Android moves to multiple screens] The topic of User Interfaces always solicits strong views. It’s a bit like TV – everyone is an expert on it because everyone uses it. Those who have been in the mobile industry a while have seen the tide of UI control flow in and out. In 2002 operators are demanding custom UIs from handset OEMs in the form of Vodafone Live and Orange SPV. Naturally, most OEMs resist, trying to capture consumer loyalty to the handset, not the network. [poll id=5] Three years on, and OEMs are opting to customizing Windows Mobile and Symbian powered handsets rather than creating all-out new UIs. At the same time, network operators are seeing poor returns from UI customization and are dissolving their teams. With the iPhone big bang in 2007, the UI is back to being the hottest topic in mobile. Post iPhone, almost all tier-1 OEMs are developing their own UI layers, namely HTC Sense, Motorola Blur, Sony Ericsson Rachael, Samsung TouchWiz and LG S-Class. In parallel, network operators are building bigger teams to attempt more control over the UI again; Vodafone, Orange and T-Mobile have 100+ person teams working on ‘signature’ applications and UI definition, while the trend seems to have spilled over to the other side of the Atlantic with Verizon and AT&T opening up multi-million software development centers. Behind the scenes there is also a good deal of demand for UI technology and expertise such as TAT’s Cascades and Mentor’s Inflexion products. The latest development in the UI saga is the rumoured tighter control being exerted by Google on the Gingerbread release of Android. The aim of this appears to be to reduce API fragmentation issues caused by custom OEM UIs and deliver a more consistent UI brand across different manufacturer devices. This is not going to go down well with Google’s partners. There is a core commercial conflict on how Google wants to take Android forward. Google wants an Apple-like level of control over the device appearance with their Android handset compliance definition encompassing hardware features, software performance, and service bundling (see the recently published CTS and CDD documents). However the Apple and Google business models could not be more different. –       Apple controls the semiconductor, hardware, and software make-up of the iPhone all the way to ad services, branding and retail pricing, whereas Google only controls the software. –       Apple makes its own devices (at a rate of 1 new model per year), whereas Google relies on partner OEMs to produce 100s of new models per year. –       Apple spends big advertising dollars in communicating a consistent brand experience across products, while Google co-markets its Experience handsets but puts no money (or effort) in partner handsets. Most importantly, unlike Apple, Google relies on OEM partners to bring these devices to market. In the OEM world of survival of the fittest and thinning margins, there are two differentiating factors: price and UI. Yet, both of these factors are being constrained; price is continually declining (standing at 100 GBP unsubsidized for Android handsets) thanks to ODMs willing to sacrifice margins; and the UI is apparently being locked down by Google in the Gingerbread release. The economic model of handset OEMs necessitates UI differentiation and Google is taking that away. For Google to expect Apple-like control on a fundamentally different business model is just unrealistic. And it’s only getting worse. Battling across 4 screens The next battle (if we are not already in it) is going to be about platforms for your whole life – not just your mobile, TV, PC in isolation, but as one joined-up world; Experience Ecosystems made up of multiple screens where experience can easily roam from one screen to the next. Browsers are already bridging the gap across laptops, phones, tablets TVs and cars, while the ‘app’ paradigm is taking this further. To have mobile, TV and PC seamlessly join up requires consistency of the user experience. Apple is the obvious role model here. The Mac, iPhone, iPad, all use similar gestures and interactions, come with similar application design guidelines and are connected to the same centralized service cloud of iTunes and MobileMe. Apple is again the role model in creating the first Experience Ecosystem. In the Android camp, Google recently announced Google TV. A consistent user experience across mobile and TV is going to be not just important but paramount. Don’t be surprised to see mobile handset OEMs to extend use of Android to other consumer electronics from picture frames and DECT phones to set-top boxes and hi-fis. But how is Google going to achieve this consistency without an Apple-like hardware control? Hardware control gives you complete user experience consistency in terms of UI responsiveness, screen quality and more. In the next release of Android (Gingerbread) the UI is apparently going to be more locked down; an attempt by Google to gain more control without resorting to hardware manufacturing. Imagine browsing content on your BrandX Android based tablet and then synching it to your BrandX TV set for viewing over the air. Consistency of experience between the 2 devices will be key. The web browser provides this consistency of interaction and is the best lowest-common denominator right now. But the app phenomenon is outperforming the web by leveraging on location, micropayments, personal user information and intuitve discovery. As one of the main engines behind the app phenomenon, Android could well be powering the battle of the smart living room. The industry tension over the UI customization of Android is not going to go away anytime soon – rather its going to amplify as more and more manufacturers leverage Android in creating smart, connected and differentiated consumer electronics devices. OEMs need to plan for their differentiated UI to span multiple devices. Having a familiar experience across devices can be a key driver of brand loyalty and is strategically important to each OEM in creating their own Experience Ecosystem. Competitive pressures make this a key pillar of differentiation that cannot be wasted. It cannot be done half-heartedly. There need to be clear benefits to consumers and clear continuity across as many devices as possible. But the benefits of the larger Android community also need to be maintained, for example having unrestricted access to the Android Market and consistent consumer marketing as to the differentiation offered by the OS itself. Google needs to accept that UI differentiation is a strategic requirement for its partners, offer alternative differentiation strategies or fundamentally change how it brings Android to market. Question is, does Google see this as a challenge to the proliferation of Android, and if so, what will they do about it? – Ben [Ben Hookway is the CEO of Vidiactive, a company bringing web video to TV, using an open and multi-device approach. He consults on user experience technology and trends, having been founder and CEO of Next Device, which was acquired by Mentor Graphics. Get in touch with Ben: ben.hookway (at) vidiactive.com] #google #Apple #userinterface #ui #carriers #mobilestrategy #strategy #Android #handsetmanufacturers

[A new mobile operating system is born. Telefonica and Mozilla have teamed up to deliver Open Web Devices. The ambition is high: displace the Apple/Google duopoly and commoditize app ecosystems. But can they do better than earlier attempts like WebOS? VisionMobile business analyst Stijn Schuermans sheds light on the challenging road ahead for this new platform candidate.] “People say that I’m a dreamer, but I am not the only one.” John Lennon Mozilla, the company behind Firefox (until recently the number two desktop browser) and top-5 mobile operator Telefonica are co-developing a new mobile operating system. The project is codenamed Boot2Gecko by Mozilla and devices running the OS are dubbed “Open Web Devices” by Telefonica. The goal is a phone that relies entirely on web technology and where all applications, from the dialler to games, are developed with HTML5. At the MWC 2012 conference in Barcelona, Mozilla ran a demo of Boot2Gecko on a Samsung Galaxy II, a high-end smartphone. At the same conference, Telefonica showed the new operating system on a low-end reference design from Qualcomm, which will become available on low-cost smartphones at a sub-Android price point. Mozilla also announced the Mozilla Marketplace, an app store for web apps. As explained in Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma, starting at the low end of the market is smart: the easiest way for Android device makers to protect their profitability is to leave the low margin devices to Open Web Devices and focus Android on higher-end devices, targeted at people who do have credit cards. This is the best way to disrupt Android. Google’s reaction will likely be lukewarm, as their interest is only in driving eyeballs to Google ads, which can be done perfectly from either platform. A disruptive strategy like this provides Telefonica with the opportunity to give Google a taste of its own medicine. Telcos are under big pressure from the application ecosystems of Apple and Google, which now own the customer relationship and are pushing down the value of the carriers to dumb bit pipes. If telcos are not full participants in the application ecosystem, then why not commoditize apps entirely? For Telefonica, Open Web Devices are an attempt to reduce the power of the major platforms and their vertical application silos by moving app development and distribution to a more “neutral” web-based environment. If applications are primarily developed in a cross-platform way, the platform’s power weakens. Mozilla is an ideal partner for telcos to achieve this, being a fundamentally not-for-profit organization with a mission to keep the Internet open and free. Mozilla and Telefonica are a good match in general for realising B2G as a competitor to Apple/Google; Mozilla can add the software foundations (APIs) and the developerecosystem around it, while Telefonica adds the OEM deals, monetisation and app store. On paper, Boot2Gecko could be the new web-based platform that succeeds where webOS failed; it is open source (unlike what webOS used to be), it has multiple OEM partners interested, it is backed by a top-5 telco and it comes at a time when HTML5 has technically evolved and enjoys widespread industry support. Indeed, B2G could be the champion that leads HTML5 from being an enabling technology to achieving full platform status. The reality is that a lot needs to be done for that to happen. In essence, the elements behind Telefonica’s Open Web Devices are not enough to win the hearts and wallets of consumers and developers: – Openness is a way to reduce developer marketing costs, but adds little value for end users. – Web is not a synonym for better user experience or the platform with which to appeal to games developers. – Devices running a web-based OS is a valid way to compete with Apple/Google, but a very expensive one, given that billions of dollars will have to be invested by Telefonica and handset OEMs before the OS reaches maturity and has a sizeable addressable market. Note that Microsoft is paying Nokia circa $1 billion a year to buy its way into an addressable market. For Boot2Gecko to succeed, it needs to compete with the other mobile platforms on all five key ingredients: 1. Software foundations, a rich set of APIs with managed fragmentation. Telefonica has already contributed a lot of the device API glue code to Boot2Gecko (based on the carrier’s earlier work within WAC). However, competing with iOS, Android and WP7 is a major long-term effort. 2. A developer ecosystem, to spur innovation and cater to diverse use cases. There are millions of web developers out there, who need to be “onboarded” onto B2G, i.e. on its specific APIs and app distribution system. 3. Devices & distribution, i.e. a large addressable market of 10s of millions of phones sold each year. As a top-5 telco, Telefonica is a major success factor here, but needs to translate OEM intentions (notably from LG who’s an early partner) into project investments and volume commitments. A positive factor here is that B2G is running on the same reference designs and based on the same kernel and core libraries – and so, quicker to bring to market than Windows Phone. 4. Monetisation. Monetisation is essential to the creation of a healthy developer ecosystem – and Telefonica intends to provide carrier billing. 5. Retailing. It is still unclear which partner will be responsible for providing  the on-device storefront, retailing and merchandising of apps to end users. To their credit, Telefonica and Mozilla are progressing fast with Boot2Gecko. The first experiments started in October 2010 and the project really kicked off in March 2011. The phone demonstrated in February 2012 wore all the key core apps (dialler, phonebook, inbox, etc.) and a UI experience that is claimed to be better than the lowest-end Android handsets. The handset demonstrated by Telefonica runs on the same hardware as the original iPhone 3G, but can be sold at 1/10th of the price according to our sources. This said, other contenders to the HTML5 platform crown, like Facebook Platform and Google Chrome, are already far more advanced in creating a viable ecosystem. Both Facebook and Chrome (the browser, the OS, but especially the web store) have already amassed substantial traction across screens and have solved at least some of the distribution, retailing and monetization challenges. The Mozilla Marketplace is a step in the right direction, but the organization has a lot of catching up to do. Moreover, there is an obvious and much cheaper substitute to these attempts to create web-app platforms that Telefonica and other telcos need to consider, if their goal is to disrupt the Apple/Google duopoly. Cross-platform development tools [see our full report – www.CrossPlatformTools.com] make it much easier for developers to reach multiple platforms and flatten the competitive landscape of Apple and Google’s ecosystems. In summary, Telefonica and Mozilla are making a very serious attempt at disrupting the current iOS/Android duopoly of application platforms. They do well to focus on low-end devices and to attack the link between apps and the platforms they run on. But using HTML5 technology or being open is not enough. Mozilla, in particular, has to prove that it can draw in web developers to this new platform and create a vibrant ecosystem. Telefonica not only needs to get OEMs enthusiastic, but also committed to produce phones in volume. Finally, it is unclear how this initiative can outrun the competition, Facebook and Chrome or whether Telefonica and Mozilla should instead invest in the alternative approach of cross-platform development tools. – Stijn Want to know more? VisionMobile offers deep insights into the HTML5 ecosystem and how it stands to disrupt the Apple/Google duopoly. Check out the latest research note in our CEO Trendwatch service (send an email to stijn@visionmobile.com for access), or our Mobile Innovation Economics workshop. #boot2gecko #operatingsystem #opensource #mobileinsider #mozilla

We are proud to announce the launch of Cross-Platform Tools 2012 – the free, industry-first report on cross-platform developer tools. You can download a free copy here. Cross-platform tools (CPTs) allow developers to create applications for multiple platforms with a small incremental cost. Their impact is both tactical in allowing developers to target more platforms, but also strategic in having the potential to disrupt the Apple/Google duopoly in mobile ecosystems. Our report is based on a 6-month project, comprising a large-scale online developer survey (nearly 2,500 respondents) combined with meticulous research, vendor interviews and analysis of this complex market of over 100 tools vendors. This report would not have been possible without the support of Marmalade, RunRev, Verizon Developer Communities, Xamarin and the many other companies behind this multi-sponsored project. Cross-platform tools (CPTs) solve real challenges today; they allow developers to create applications for multiple platforms – usually mobile, but increasingly tablets or TV screens – from almost the same codebase or from within the same design tool. CPTs reduce the cost of platform fragmentation and allow developers to target new platforms at a small incremental cost. More importantly, cross-platform tools allow software companies targeting multiple platforms to reuse developer skills, share codebases, synchronise releases and reduce support costs. Early leaders in the cross-platform tools space Our survey revealed that PhoneGap and Sencha lead in terms of mindshare, as they are currently used by 32% and 30% of cross-platform developers, irrespective of their primary tools. Completing the top-5 ranking of our Mindshare Index are Xamarin’s MonoTouch / Mono for Android, Appcelerator and Adobe (Flex). The second half of the top-10 CPTs in terms of current use are Unity, Corona, AppMobi, RunRev and MoSync. PhoneGap (23%), Xamarin Mono (22%) and Unity (22%) are the tools most developers plan to adopt, irrespective of their primary tool. This market is in constant flux, with developers experimenting and trying out new tools – for example PhoneGap is a stepping stone to cross-platform development as it leads Mindshare, IntentShare, but also comes third in the tools being abandoned. The most widely used CPT accounts for just half of the Mindshare seen in the iOS and Android platforms in our Developer Economics 2011 report. Cross-platform tools challenge the Apple/Google duopoly The real impact of cross-platform tools is strategic. Just as the Apple/Google duopoly began to look impenetrable in 2011, a major disruption is flattening the playing field for competitors like Microsoft’s WP7, RIM’s BlackBerry OS and Samsung’s Bada: cross-platform tools are letting developers target multiple platforms with low incremental costs and high levels of code reuse. 2012 marks an inflexion point in the war of mobile ecosystems where the network effects built by Apple and Google are being challenged by an unsuspected new entrant. Cross-platform tools (CPTs) make it easier for example for an iPhone developer to reach Android and Windows Phone 7 users. CPTs dilute network effects by allowing other ecosystems to compete not just in terms of the number of apps listed, but also the availability of top apps, the time-to- market (an app rarely appears at the same time across all platform app stores) and the overall app quality. Moreover, cross-platform tools reduce barriers to entry and democratise app development, by allowing developers from any language (HTML, Java, C++), any background (hobbyist, pros, agencies, corporates) and any skill level (visual designer to hard-core developer) to build mobile apps. The dozens of CPTs available cater to every developer segment, from creative designers to C++ gurus to hobbyist website enthusiasts to Fortune-500 CIOs. The result could be termed a “democratisation” of software development (in the words of Unity’s Dan Adams), in that mobile platforms may be opened up to all types of developers. Mergers, financings and the survival of the strongest We have identified over 100 cross-platform developer tools, in a market that’s booming with new players in 2011. Cross-platform tools have passed the “early adopter” phase, and are now moving into mainstream. For example vendor Sencha counts 1.6 million SDK downloads, Corona apps have reportedly been downloaded 35 million times in 2011, Unity reports 200,000 developers active each month, while Appcelerator boasts 35,000 apps published using the tool and deployed on 40 million devices. Since 2011, cross-platform tool vendors have raised major VC funding, have been acquired, or achieved major releases. In the CPT space we have tracked 10 acquisitions, and over US$ 200 million in funding rounds. This is a market that takes cash to survive: CPT vendors are subsidizing their entry to market with free products, based on ample VC funding. For example OpenPlug ceased operations as it failed to find a monetisation model, with its key challenge being the conversion of freemium users into paying customers for its support and professional services. CPT vendors without a compelling free product will be washed out by the competition. Cross-platform tools are taking HTML further than browsers can The purpose of HTML5 has been to extend the capabilities of web apps (those developed using HTML and JavaScript) to more closely match the capabilities of native apps. Despite performance disadvantages and fragmentation across different browser versions, HTML5 has emerged as the most widely supported authoring technology for cross-platform apps. Cross-platform tools are taking HTML further than web browsers can, by allowing web developers to create native smartphone apps. In other words, CPTs are taking HTML5 much further by unifying the authoring side- rather than the runtime side – of the app across platforms. Moreover, CPTs are paving the way for HTML5 to become not a platform, but the mainstream development technology for smartphone apps. Cross-platform tools are already triggering an influx of web developers; We found that 60% of CPT users, irrespective of their primary tool, have more than five years experience in web development. Indeed, cross-platform tools have triggered an influx of web developers into mobile. Android and Windows Phone have been constantly evolving, adding hundreds of new APIs from each major version to the next. Due to the rapid advancement of platforms, tools vendors will always be one or two steps behind in terms of features and access to the complete set of device capabilities. Developers that create demanding applications like 3D games or apps requiring intense user interaction, exceptionally deep user experience, or apps relying on specific features not available on all platforms will need to be developed using the native SDK. Cross-platform tools will therefore be complementary to native SDKs. Cross platform tools will become “business as usual” As the platform landscape remains fragmented for the foreseeable future, cross-platform tools will become “business as usual” The future of mobile development is multi-platform – fewer and fewer developers will be able to afford to be confined to a single platform with the limited user reach and monetisation opportunities that implies. The adoption of cross-platform tools is driven by the ability to reach masses of users, which is the primary consideration for most developer segments. Cross-platform tools are indeed the only cost-effective vehicle for these developers to reach a wide mass of users, and we expect CPT usage to become commonplace a result. Multi-screen and the evolving points of competition At the onset of 2012, CPT developer selection criteria are heavily skewed towards the breadth of platforms supported by each tool. This picture will change considerably as cross-platform tools vendors advance their products to cover all the major mobile platforms. We expect that by mid-2013, the platforms covered by a CPT will move from a point of differentiation to a point of parity. In that timeframe, we expect the points of competition to move to later stages of the app lifecycle, with vendors offering component marketplaces, end-to-end workflow tools, device adaptation tools, app publishing services and post-download services. In the sea of 100+ cross-platform tools, vendors are beginning to differentiate by targeting three distinct developer segments: those working on games, enterprise or media apps. Developers in these three segments face distinctly different challenges, work in distinctly different environments and as such need very different CPT solutions. As tool vendors try to survive in the “red ocean” of dozens of cross-platform tools, we expect CPTs to emerge for the financial sector, media publishers and the healthcare/medical sector. Multi-screen is the next frontier. The battle of the software ecosystems is raging across many screens – mobile, tablet, PC and soon smart TV devices – and multi-screen will be the next frontier for cross-platform tools. Already in our survey, 27% of respondents noted that they also target Windows PC and 24% target Mac desktops with their main cross-platform tool. However, the complexities of cross-platform development in a multi-screen environment are growing exponentially and beyond the simple sharing of the code between multiple platforms. Different screen types have different interaction models, input methods, screen sizes, go-to-market channels and pricing models, while developers working on different screens have use varying tool-chains, development cycles and collaboration processes. With the proliferation of users who own more than one connect screen, the next frontier for cross-platform tools will be multi-screen. Lessons to be learned Cross platform tools have previously faced criticism, most notably from Steve Jobs in his infamous open letter “Thoughts on Flash”. The next generation of tools are however rapidly coming to market or maturing with abundant backing from the financial and developer community. The cross-platform tools market is in a state of abundant volatility and we see continual flux, as developers try a tool, and then churn to a different one. This is a market with no clear winners or losers. It’s a market where there is little developer loyalty, and perceptions are still being formed. Now is the time for well-funded vendors with great tools to prove themselves and establish a firm beachhead. – Seth Follow us on Twitter – @visionmobile Download a copy of the report here. Interested in raw data from the report? Drop us a note #unity #xamarin #phonegap #runrev #marmalade #crossplatformtools #sencha #Adobe