Search Results

We’re proud to present our new Developer Economics 2012 report – the third in the series of reports that set the standard for developer research. DevEcon12 focuses on five main areas: The redefinition of mobile ecosystems, Developer segmentation, Revenues vs. costs in the mobile economy, App marketing and distribution and Regional supply vs. demand of apps. Full report available for free download at www.DeveloperEconomics.com, thanks to the sponsorship by BlueVia.

[The latest Developer Economics report is now live – this is the third in the report series that set the standard for developer research and focuses on five main areas: The redefinition of mobile ecosystems, Developer segmentation, Revenues vs. costs in the mobile economy, App marketing and distribution and Regional supply vs. demand of apps. Developer Economics 2012 is available for free download at www.DeveloperEconomics.com, thanks to the sponsorship by BlueVia!] Here’s just a sample of the key insights and graphs from the report – download the full report for more! – The new pyramid of handset maker competition. In the new pyramid of handset maker competition, Apple leads innovators, Samsung leads fast-followers, ZTE leads assemblers and Nokia leads the feature phone market. Apple has seized almost three quarters of industry profits by delivering unique product experiences and tightly integrating hardware, software, services and design. Samsung ranks second to Apple in total industry profits. As a fast follower, its recipe for success is to reach market first with each new Android release. It produces its own chipsets and screens – the two most expensive components in the hardware stack – ensuring both profits and first-to-market component availability. – Tablets are now a mainstream screen for developers. Developers are rapidly responding to the rising popularity of tablets: our Developer Economics 2012 survey found that, irrespective of platform, more than 50% of developers are now targeting tablets, with iOS developers most likely (74%) to do so. This is a massive increase over last year, when just a third of developers (34.5%) reported targeting tablets. On the other end of the spectrum are TVs and game consoles, with fewer than 10% of developers targeting those screens. – Survival of the fittest has played out within 12 months. Whereas 2011 was the era of developer experimentation, 2012 is shaping up as the era of ecosystem consolidation around iOS and Android. Developer Mindshare is at an all-time-high 76% for Android and 66% for iOS. Darwin’s “survival of the fittest” model explains how BlackBerry, BREW, and Bada (Samsung) have lost Mindshare by failing to compete in terms of user reach, which is by far and consistently the top platform selection criterion for developers. In 2012, developers used on average 2.7 platforms in parallel, vs 3.2 in 2011, a clear sign of consolidation. The trend is further evidenced by declining IntentShare scores for most platforms – apart from mobile web and Windows Phone. – Windows Phone is the new cool. While Windows Phone sales continue to disappoint, a year on, with 2.6 million devices sold in Q1 2012, interest among developers continues to build up. Our survey of 1,500 developers indicated that, irrespective of which platform they currently use most, the majority of developers (57%) plan to adopt Windows Phone. At the same time, seeing as last year’s 32% Intentshare for Windows Phone added only 1% to this year’s actual Mindshare, it becomes clear that converting intention to adoption is not a given. Windows Phone is indeed the new cool, a platform generating increasing developer buzz and anticipation; but to turn the buzz into developer buy-in at the levels of iOS and Android, actual adoption must follow soon or fall flat. – Mass-exodus from the second runners. BREW (Qualcomm), is in terminal decline; the rate at which developers are abandoning BREW is alarming, with 60% of developers now using BREW indicate they plan to stop using it. Bada (Samsung) is being abandoned by 49% of developers currently using the platform, paling against the duopoly in both shipments (20 million units cumulative) and platform maturity. BlackBerry (RIM) is close to becoming an endangered species, being abandoned by 41% of developers, – worse, it is being abandoned by 14% of those using it as their primary platform plan to jump ship. No acquirer of RIM is likely to invest in salvaging the BB platform. The developer exodus is a much greater and more measurable testament to the decline of BREW, Bada and BlackBerry than any other market indicator. – User reach is the root cause for platform selection. In our survey of 1,500+ developers, a large installed base of devices still ranks as the top criteria for platform selection, cited by 54% of developers, irrespective of primary platform, while 43% cite low cost. In contrast, only 30% of developers selected a platform based on its revenue potential, a factor that increased by just over 10 percentage points in the last year. Reaching users, eyeballs or wallets is the root cause for platform selection. Once an application has reach, then ad impressions, paid downloads, subscriptions, or distribution deals will follow. – Solving the “Babel tower” of developer marketing. Millions and millions of dollars are being spent to attract developers, not just by mobile firms, but also brick-and-mortar companies. Businesses vying for developer innovation ignore the fact that in a market of over one million mobile app publishers, there are many shapes and sizes of developers. We created a quantitative segmentation model that addresses how to persuade developers to adopt a tool, platform or API, based on their motivations to commit valuable resources to the platform. The eight developer segments in this model are the Hobbyists, the Explorers, the Hunters, the Guns for Hire, the Product Extenders, the Digital Media Publishers, the Gold Seekers and the Corporate IT developers. – One in three developers lives below the app poverty line. Based on our research of 1,500+ developers we found that while the average per-app revenue is in the range of $1,200-$3,900 depending on platform, an app has a 35% chance of generating $1 – $500. This means that one in three developers live below the “app poverty line”; That is, they cannot rely on apps as a sole source of income. On the revenue-generating side, 14% of developers will make somewhere between $500 and $1,000 per app, while 13% will generate between $1,001 and $5,000 per app per month. – BlackBerry comes out on top in terms of average revenue followed by iOS with nearly $3,900 per app per month. BlackBerry developers generate, on average, 4% more revenue per app-month than iOS developers, who in turn generate about 35% more than Android developers. iOS wins over Android due to superior demographics (Apple users are less price sensitive), superior content (higher ratio of paid apps to free apps), tablet domination (where per app prices are higher) and frictionless payment (400 million accounts on file with one-click payment). – iOS most expensive platform to develop on at $27,000 per app. Apple’s iOS is the most costly platform to target, on average costing just above $27,000 per app, 21% more expensive than Android and 81% more expensive than Blackberry. The average app will take approximately three man-months to develop. Naturally, app development costs depend on the country and app category – for example iOS is faster to develop communication and social networking apps than Android. – Marginalisation of telco distribution. Telco portals have seen a 47% decrease in use as a primary channel to just 3% of developers, normalized by platform. These are the same portals that used to dominate content distribution in the pre-Apple era of downloadable ringtones, wallpapers and Java applications. There is one exception: leveraging the absence of Google Play in China, China Mobile’s app store has enrolled 22% of its subscribers, and has served over 600 million downloads, according to IHS Screen Digest. – The next 10 million apps. North America tops app demand with 41% of developers indicating this is a top-3 download region, irrespective of their region of origin. Europe claims a 31% share, followed by Asia where 25% of developers see most of their apps being downloaded. App demand in each country grows with three factors: rising levels of smartphone penetration, growing user engagement, and total addressable market of smartphone subscribers in a country. While many Western markets drive app demand due to these factors, BRIC markets will be driving demand an order of magnitude larger as their smartphone penetration increases. The next 10 million apps are not going to come from the current leading markets, but from BRIC demand for localised apps. – The imbalance between spoken vs app languages. A local language deficit emerges when comparing the languages spoken globally, against the supply of app-languages produced by developers: 85% of developers publishing in English address just 8% (around 500 million) of the world population speaking English, while Chinese, spoken by 22% of the world population, only attracts 16% of developers. English dominates developers’ language share almost everywhere, putting local languages supply at a deficit, not only on a global, but on a regional basis as well. Developers in Europe publish in 2.45 languages, the highest multi-language use across all regions. In South America, Spanish is used by 84% of developers, while English is only used by 48%. – Mapping the global app trade routes. Latin America has the largest share of developers (44%) experiencing demand mainly from global markets, and is therefore the most export-oriented app economy. In contrast, Europe is the least export-oriented app economy, with just 26% of developers focusing on non-regional markets. Overall, we see a far higher share of developers experiencing demand from their own region than from global markets. Read the full, 75-page report for more insights – available for free download, thanks to the sponsorship by BlueVia! Let us know what you think of the report – you can also connect with us on Twitter @visionmobile – The VisionMobile team #ios #developer #Android #windowsphone #Blackberry #mobile #apps

Welcome to our new website! After many long months in the making, we’ve finally launched our new, completely redesigned website. There’s lots of cool stuff here, so feel free to explore and dig around! Drop us a line if you have any feedback – or if you find anything that’s broken…

Business Partner George Voulgaris gave a presentation titled “Building Business in Mobile” at MOBIP 2012 Pan European Partnership and Investment for Mobile Services event

Presenting our new infographic – the Clash of Ecosystems. Android, iOS, Windows Phone, BlackBerry, bada and others are locked in a winner-takes-all battle – and everything revolves around an ecosystem. This infographic presents key figures for each of our competing platforms, smartphone penetration per region – but it also shows what happened to platforms that didn’t make it. Which platform has the largest sales base?  Which has the largest app store, with the most downloads? Check out the answers in the Clash of Ecosystems infographic – as well as the mural of dead (or dying) platforms, our Dead Platform Graveyard. This infographic is based on the VisionMobile report “Clash of Ecosystems”, available for free download at www.visionmobile.com/Ecosystems Feel free to copy the infographic and embed it in your website (embed codes below the infographic). #mobileapps #mobileplatform #ios #symbian #Android #windowsphone #Blackberry

This infographic presents major findings from our latest report – Beyond Siri: the next frontier in User Interfaces is a critical analysis of the virtual assistants market. Helped by Apple’s successful launch of its Siri technology in 2011, voice-activated mobile virtual assistants (VAs) have crossed the chasm into mass-market deployments. Apple’s product triggered a wave of both imitation and innovation in the last year, including tens of smartphone applications. This was only for starters. Developers, speech recognition and AI vendors, telcos and handset manufacturers are now all working on bringing the next-generation VA to life Beyond Siri breaks down the virtual assistant market and showcases key players, Android vs. iOS downloads and revenues, as well as the evolution of VA technology from the phone assistant to the lifestyle buddy. This is still a market of high volumes of downloads, but low revenues. While Google’s Voice Search leads in terms of downloads, claiming a huge 86% of the market, it’s actually Voice Actions by Pannous who’s snatching most of the revenues – $655 USD in 2011. Android gets the lion’s share in terms of downloads, since 94% of all Virtual Assistant apps are downloaded on Android devices. However, it’s iOS that makes developers money – despite the fact that iOS only has 6% of VA apps downloads, it accounts for 86% of revenues! Full report on Virtual Assistant market available at www.visionmobile.com/VA Feel free to copy the infographic and embed it in your website (embed codes below the infographic). #mobileapps #siri #virtualassistants

[Helped by Apple’s successful launch of its Siri technology in 2011, voice-activated mobile virtual assistants (VAs) have crossed the chasm into mass-market deployments. Apple’s product triggered a wave of both imitation and innovation in the last year, including tens of smartphone applications. This was only for starters. Developers, speech recognition and AI vendors, telcos and handset manufacturers are now all working on bringing the next-generation VA to life.] Read more about the evolution of virtual assistants from 1995 to 2015 in the full report (free download) Apple got a head start by embedding Siri in its UI, but Samsung is now countering with Samsung Voice. And Nokia is also working on a Siri-like interface, our sources say. Telecom operators are also warming up to the idea; some VA integration with RCS could hit the European market in early 2014. With technology advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) — in particular Natural Language Processing (NLP), user profiling and search – VA technology is moving from understanding language to anticipating user intent. As such the focus for virtual assistant apps is shifting from today’s command-and-control (“I ask, you answer”) towards continual dialogues of recommendations and user actions. Established vendors such as SRI International, Apple, Google and Nuance as well as challengers like Artificial Solutions, Dexetra and i-Free Innovations, are all working on this shift from commands to dialogue. SRI International is to showcase a back-and-forth dialogue technology by fall 2012. With the advances in VA technology, virtual assistant personalities will move from devices to the cloud due to the immense amounts of data needed to process. With personalities stored in the cloud, virtual assistants will become readily and seamless available not only on smartphones, but also on TVs, in cars, and in smart homes. Established cloud storage and processing companies like Google and Amazon stand to benefit the most. Virtual assistants are disrupting ad-based business models Traditional search and ad-based business models are being disrupted. Delivering answers rather than search results, is a core value proposition of virtual assistants. For traditional search engines, this translates into decreasing page hits and consequently to a fall in search advertising revenue. Google has seen declining search traffic from iPhones following the launch of Siri, according to our sources. Disruption to advertising business models (read Google and Facebook) arises as virtual assitants become a point of convergence for user profiling data. By amassing deep knowledge of user search terms, VAs can become pivotal to third parties wanting to target users by interest. Amidst these disruptions, we expect Google to launch a free Siri alternative across multiple smartphone platforms, hardwired to Google’s search results and advertising revenue streams. Google’s open speech recognition API creates traction for Android. It also means more efforts required by licensing SR vendors to attract and keep voice-based app developers. Exploring business models for virtual assistants Paid downloads generate little revenue for VA vendors today. The 43 VA apps we looked into generated under 2 million USD, despite over 133 million downloads. Nearly 86 percent of paid download revenue were on iOS. What VA vendors are actually focusing on today is to build a large user base in order to cut intersting third-party content and service distribution deals for the future. Moving forward, we see revenue coming in from search and advertising and, increasingly, from third-party deals and avatar customisation, rather than from paid downloads. Virtual assistants as a discovery control point As virtual assistants move from being apps to becoming access points for personalised service discovery, they will become strategic distribution channels for both mainstream and niche service providers. Moreover, context-based user profiling opens new opportunities for contextual marketing and advertising, by letting brands push more user-relevant messages, offers and recommendations through virtual assistants. Siri was just the beginning. Don’t forget to download the full report – and send us your feedback! – Marlène #virtualassistants #crossscreen #google #Apple #siri

Managing Director Andreas Constantinou launched Mobile Megatrends 2012 at the Mobile Heights Business Centre in Lund on 4 May 2012. You can watch Managing Director, Andreas Constantinou in his presentation here.

Our Developer Economics 2012 survey has now closed and the prize draw winners have been announced: $1,000 Amazon voucher Glenn Stein, USA New iPad Jeff Bacon, Canada Kindle Fire: Marouan Omezzine, Tunisia Thank you to all those that took part. We’ll be publishing the results of this survey as a free report in June 2012 – if you want to receive word, please subscribe to our mailing list

Managing Director Andreas Constantinou presented Mobile Megatrends 2012 at the GMIC in China on 10 May 2012.

Marketing Manager Matos Kapetanakis presented The mobile market in 2011: new facts & old myths‘ at theWireless Innovation MED Conference on 27 April 2012. The presentation covered what the mobile market looked like in 2011 and what changes are heading our way..

We’ve just launched the Developer Economics 2012 survey. Developer Economics is the essential report on mobile developers, apps and brands going mobile The results will be freely available in Q2 2012 as a free report. Now in its third year, our annual Developer Economics reports series has become a well-known staple of developer research, with nearly 30 thousand downloads from our website alone and hundreds of mentions in popular media. This research is produced by VisionMobile and sponsored by BlueVia. To find out more click here and if you’re a Mobile Developer join the survey and have your say.

[Welcome to the new edition of our annual Mobile Megatrends report series. Megatrends 2012 analyses and interprets the nine most important trends of 2012, explaining how the software world is impacting the mobile business.] Mobile Megatrends 2012 View more presentations from VisionMobile The new Mobile Megatrends report Mobile Megatrends 2012 is a 96-page research report – available for free download from our website or SlideShare – dissecting nine key themes: – Handset DELL-ification and the emerging pyramid of handset OEM – Web as the new walled garden and why the web is going back to the AOL days. – Cross-platform tools as the next challenge to the Apple/Google duopoly – The Kindelization of tablets – how Kindle is setting the rules of the tablet market – Ecosystems battle across 4 screens and how experience roaming drives user lock-in, cross-sales and engagement – Accessories as the next frontier for platform differentiation – Tools for gold seekers and how the developer gold-rush has led to a gold rush for developer tools – Reinventing the telco and how unbundling the telco is needed to compete in the software era – The future of voice, from telephony to diversity of use cases We’ll dig into two of these trends in this article – Handset DELL-ificationn and Cross-platform tools. To read the full analysis of all the trends, download the full report – feedback welcome. The DELL-ification of the handset market In late 2010, it was reported that Symbian had been toppled from the smartphone throne by Android. Back then, the difference in market share between Symbian and Android was just 2%. During 2011, the gap grew much larger, with Android claiming more than half of the shipments in the smartphone market, and Symbian dropping to single digits of market share. Android’s dominance in 2011 can be summarized in just one phrase: One in two smartphones shipped in 2011 was an Android handset. The driver to Android’s success was the eagerness of many handset manufacturers to build cheap smartphones that can compete against the iPhone. Google, too, used Android to commoditize the smartphone market, indirectly reducing handset price points well below $100 and causing a loss of OEM differentiation, thus homogenizing smartphones into a single form factor. While many handset rode the Android train into the smartphone market, it’s actually very few that are making real profits. Aside from Apple, Samsung is the only company of the Android court that’s achieving profitability. Together, Apple and Samsung accounted for 99% of all handset profits in Q1 2012. That means that 10s of Android handset makers will have to fight over the crumbs of the smartphone pie, i.e. the remaining 1% of the market profits. The success of Apple and Samsung rests on their ability to add value across the entire value chain, from silicon to the cloud. Apple owns the iOS platform, hardware IP, handset design, content delivery and services, all the way to retail, combining these into a unique product experience. Samsung also derives its competitive advantage from exerting control over the entire value chain, producing the components with the highest cost, notably screens and application chipsets. This allows the company to capture profits across the value chain, while its competitors can only capture the value of assembly. Ownership of the key components within the value chain allows Samsung to reap not only profit benefits, but also availability and time-to-market benefits. Samsung also leads Android makers by being the first to market with new Android releases and next-gen screens, which allows it to capture even more profits arising from early adopter sales. Does all this mean that the smartphone market is entirely dominated by Samsung and Apple? While this might be true for the time being, there’s still room for new types of players, like Amazon, who could enter the smartphone market with a unique business model of subsidizing (self-branded) phones to drive a content and retailing ecosystem. Nokia continues to innovate in low-end handsets, notably with the release of the 110 phone running on S40 platform, and featuring a 1.8” screen at only 38 EUR before taxes and subsidy. To read more on the opportunities of the smartphone market, download the full report. Cross-Platform Tools and the challenge to the Apple/Google duopoly In order to maximize their reach, developers need to have apps running across multiple platforms. The challenge with that is that developers have to learn a variety of different programming languages, vastly different to each other, as well as use various app stores. The situation is especially difficult for developers who are just entering mobile – and there are millions of those! Cross-platform tools are a solution to increasing reach without accruing costs, by simplifying the porting of an app across different platforms. There’s a plethora of different tools available (see our comprehensive Cross-Platform Tools 2012 report for the full list), which cover diverse technologies and solutions, from source code translators to hybrid web tools. Impeded by teething issues, the CPT market has not come into full swing yet, but it’s quickly gaining acceptance with leading tools like PhoneGap and Sencha that have made it into the mainstream. What CPTs bring to the table is the democratization of development, by extending the reach of masses of web developers beyond the browser. Despite performance disadvantages and fragmentation across different browser versions, HTML5 has emerged as the most widely supported authoring technology for cross-platform apps. Cross-platform tools are taking HTML further than web browsers can, by allowing web developers to create native smartphone apps, using for example PhoneGap. CPTs are accomplishing this by unifying the authoring side- rather than the runtime side – of the app across platforms. In addition, cross-platform tools are threatening the Apple/Google duopoly. 2012 marks an inflexion point in the war of mobile ecosystems where the network effects built by Apple and Google are being challenged by an unsuspected new entrant – CPTs make it easier, for example, for an iPhone developer to reach Android and Windows Phone 7 users. CPTs dilute network effects by allowing other ecosystems to compete not just in terms of the number of apps listed, but also the availability of top apps, the time-to- market (an app rarely appears at the same time across all platform app stores) and the overall app quality. We expect web developers to be at least ten times as many as native mobile developers, which means that the still-nascent CPT market will quickly grow in the near future. Although not necessarily a replacement for native development, cross-platform tools will become more prominent, easing the way for 100s of thousands of developers who are just entering the mobile market. Read more on the growth of the CPT space and the top vendors in the full report. The Megatrends report series Now in its 5th edition, our annual Mobile Megatrends report identifies the major trends in mobile – from the accessories market to the Kindel-ization of tablets and the battle of ecosystems across 4 screens. download. You can also view the whole report on SlideShare (see embedded window at top of article) If you’re interested in a 1-day on-site strategy workshop – with more in-depth insights into these trends, contact matos@visionmobile.com Feedback welcome, as always – Matos @visionmobile

[The bright cross-screen future is creeping ever closer, with handset manufacturers and consumer electronics giants competing over the next connected screen; the TV. But what about developers – how easy is it to create apps that work across screens? Guest author Ben Hookway discusses the nuances of cross-screen development and the challenges and opportunities ahead for the smart TV market] Imagine for a moment a world of apps where there are more than 10 platforms to choose from – and where most of these platforms are closed to developers. A world where only a few applications have been developed. A world where no one is using these apps anyway. Of course this is describing the current state of the connect TV market. The description could equally apply to the mobile world pre-iPhone, when the focus of app development was on a frustratingly diverse set of platforms. I spent a few years building businesses which operated in the mobile space pre- and post- iPhone, and lately I’ve been building a business attempting to disrupt web and connected TV. I am constantly struck by the similarity of both environments and believe that the TV industry should spend some quality time looking at the evolution of apps on the mobile from the feature phone to smart phone to avoid re-learning some painful lessons. TV is a world apart from mobile apps The word “app” can mean something subtly different on TV. In many cases a TV app is an access point for a set of content – for example, the YouTube, Netflix or LoveFilm apps. In other cases an app refers to functionality just as the Facebook or the eBay app. In my more cynical moments I sometimes think we’ve ended up with apps on TV because nobody could think of anything better to do. “It worked for phones, so lets try it on TV! The right apps will be useful on TV, but at the same time it is important to recognise what the TV experience is: – TV is often a shared experience. Mobile phones are personal. – TV is lean back. Various attempts to get consumers to interact with TV have fallen away – Consumers hate complex remote controls Many developers crossing over from web development to TV development aren’t recognising these nuances. This may end in apps just not getting used. Do you really want to be allowing your personal information on a shared screen? Will the other people sharing the TV screen really want it to be used for you scrolling through your Facebook messages? Three Ways to Develop Apps for TV There are roughly three different categories for TV app development; 1. TV-only apps Apps for the TV screen or set-top box are usually your favourite web services extended to the TV screen. Examples are Spotify, Flickr and of course Twitter and Facebook. The apps need to be modified in order to work with a TV remote as well and with limited text input – which is easier said than done. Some will be more suitable for crossing over to TV than others. CNet has a comprehensive listing of mainstream music, video and communication apps that have been launched by TV manufacturers. 2. Mobile-only apps These are mobile or tablet apps that complement the TV but don’t interact with it. Examples here are Zeebox (which recently secured an interesting investment from Sky), Flip.tv, GetGlu, and Miso. These apps focus on providing a concurrent experience to watching the TV, allowing you to interact on your personal device while watching the TV. In this category you can add apps that provide listings content and so on. Consumer surveys show tablets are a natural companion to TV – according to Forrester, 85% of US tablet owners use their tablets while watching TV, and according to Nielsen, 30% of total tablet time is spent while watching TV. 3. Closed loop apps These are apps that close the loop between mobile and TV experience. Some examples here use DLNA and AirPlay to allow the selection and control of streamed content to the TV screen. The simplest example here would be Apple’s AirPlay allowing you to play movies stored on your MacBook on your TV screen via the Apple TV. Closed loop apps allow you to stream content from one device to the TV screen, for instance. Harder to find are apps which interact with the broadcast TV functions as opposed to using the TV as a monitor, such as allowing you to set recordings on your STB from your smartphone. However, discovering content or channels on one device and using that same device to bring up the content on TV is a more difficult proposition because of the integration required with the TV or STB. This is where innovation starts to break down. The TV fragmentation nightmare Developing for TV or STB platforms is challenging, whether you are developing TV/STB apps, attempting to ‘close the loop’ or develop a standalone app. Why is that? – There are a 10+ target platforms. Everyone is pushing some kind of application environment for their TV or set-top box. Examples are, Samsung, Panasonic, Sharp, LG, Sony, Yahoo, Google TV, Boxee, InView, WyPlay, YouView (eventually) and HBBTV – not to mention Android spin-offs. Some of these are closed systems and some have developers programs. For a comprehensive list it is worth looking at this Wikipedia page. No developer can target all of these platforms, so how do you pick the right one for success? – How many connected TV screens are there going to be? According to the CEA (www.cea.org), about 260m TV’s were sold in 2011, and around 27% of these were connected (FutureSource). The percentage of TVs that come with Internet connectivity as standard will increase rapidly. Assuming the all connected TVs that are sold are actually plugged into the Internet, the addressable market is still way lower than for mobile phones. In reality, the picture is much more complex. – Many ‘Connected TVs’ are TVs which happen to be ready for connection. Just because it’s Internet ready, it doesn’t mean that the TV will be actually plugged into the Internet and used. – Not enough of these devices have been bought yet for consumers to realise how poor some of the experiences are. Good products evolve from feedback and there are simply not enough devices in the market for manufacturers to learn from consumer feedback yet. Moreover, there is no compelling reason for consumers to give feedback when they can just go the TV content they want with their existing systems such as traditional set top box services, or use catch-up TV services on PCs and tablets. Will TV have its ‘iPhone Moment‘? Having worked through the iPhone disruption in the mobile space I can safely say that this has not yet occurred in the TV market. However, when it comes it will decisively change the dynamics of development. This is important for start-ups working in the TV space and the investors, VC or Angels who back them. Consider the dynamics of app development pre-iPhone. Often you would have to work with an operator or with a handset manufacturer and would have to pay close attention to the changes in the target platform. Dealing with handset manufacturers and operators is notoriously tricky and time-consuming – and while can make you a superstar if you get it right, more often it wastes time and precious resources. Post-iPhone, the way of reaching users and making money with apps has radically changed. No need for deep relationships with operators or handset manufacturers – you can just target the obvious winners in the platform space and push your app to the store. This environment does not exist yet in TV. There are candidates for an ‘iPhone moment’ in TV. Obviously Apple are rumoured to be launching a proper TV. The current Apple TV box is a great device but is not yet an open app platform. Google TV is a slow burn project but is making steady progress and could be a candidate. Xbox is also a dark horse, especially with the recent reports (http://t.co/DrM7mu1t) which show that more time is now spent watching content through and Xbox than gaming on it. And don’t forget the TV incumbents who have been working on this for a while. TiVo, Sky+, YouView in the UK, HBB TV in Europe are all active in TV platform development and Roku has been providing Over The Top (OTT) boxes for a couple of years now. Where should you place your bets? TV is a confusing place to be working at the moment, in an industry that could be going through an inflexion point in the next couple of years. Its very hard to place the right bet when it comes to TV app development platforms. That said, if you want a list of places to focus on I would list: TV Manufacturers: Samsung and Sony because of their volume STB Companies: Boxee, Roku for as thought leaders so far Platforms: Google TV is the most open platform, and are doing a great deal to encourage development, including signing up major tier-1 services like Hulu. They have low volumes at the moment though so keep an eye on product announcements (http://www.google.com/tv/) And of course, watch Apple. The next significant step may be the opening up of the current Apple TV product to app development (it is currently closed). The announcement many are waiting for though is of an actual TV set. TV will have its iPhone Moment, but it might not be Apple that creates it. – Ben (@benhookway) [Ben Hookway has 15 years experience in the US, Europe and Asia in technology companies. He has been CEO of Next Device, a mobile phone UI company, and Vidiactive, a web video systems provider. He is currently working with a variety of tech companies and can be contacted at ben@etherow.com] #crossscreen #developers #tv #tvapps